ivmchannels
Nigeria under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is facing a mounting debt crisis, with borrowing largely directed toward consumption and debt servicing rather than productive investment. This trajectory is eroding the Nigerian dream, leaving future generations burdened with unsustainable obligations and shrinking opportunities.
Tinubu’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy
- Explosive Debt Growth
- Nigeria’s public debt rose from ₦77 trillion in May 2023 (end of Buhari’s tenure) to over ₦152 trillion by mid-2025 under Tinubu. Projections suggest it could hit ₦187 trillion by the end of 2025.
- In just one year, Tinubu added ₦24 trillion, nearly one-third of Buhari’s total debt accumulation over eight years.
- This pace of borrowing is unprecedented in Nigeria’s history, raising alarms about fiscal sustainability and the country’s ability to meet future obligations.
- Borrowing for Consumption, Not Construction
- Loans are often used for recurrent spending, subsidies, and debt servicing, rather than infrastructure or productive investments.
- Examples include a $1.5 billion World Bank loan and a $1 billion Eurobond, much of which went to budgetary support rather than capital projects.
- Unlike countries that leverage debt to build railways, power plants, or industrial hubs, Nigeria’s borrowing has yielded little in terms of tangible assets that could generate future revenue.
- Crowding Out the Private Sector
- Over 70% of Nigerian banks’ risk assets are tied up in government debt instruments, leaving little credit for businesses and stifling economic growth.
- Entrepreneurs face prohibitive interest rates, while small and medium enterprises—the backbone of job creation—are starved of capital.
- This dynamic entrenches dependency on government spending, rather than unleashing private innovation.
Consequences for the Nigerian Dream
- Youth Burden
- With 70% of Nigerians under 30, today’s borrowing translates into tomorrow’s taxes, inflation, and reduced fiscal space for education, healthcare, and innovation.
- In 2023, 96% of federal revenue went to debt servicing, leaving almost nothing for development.
- The result is a generation growing up with fewer opportunities, forced to migrate or endure underemployment in a shrinking economy.
- Collapse of Agriculture & Food Security
- Insecurity in rural areas has crippled farming, leading to food inflation and man-made famine.
- Nigeria, once a breadbasket for West Africa, now imports staples at exorbitant costs.
- The government’s failure to secure farmland undermines sovereignty, as food dependency translates into political vulnerability.
- Weaponization of Poverty
- Distribution of rice bags and other “palliatives” is seen as a cynical political tool—keeping citizens dependent while failing to address structural poverty.
- Instead of empowering citizens through jobs and education, poverty is managed as a political currency, eroding dignity and self-reliance
In essence, Tinubu’s debt-heavy governance is mortgaging Nigeria’s future for short-term survival. Unless borrowing is redirected toward productive investments and insecurity is tackled, the Nigerian dream of prosperity and self-determination risks becoming a mirage.